Sunday poll suggests FF slipping, FG/Lab doing well

Today's Sunday Business Post/Red C poll shows a drop in support for Fianna Fáil and a gain for Fine Gael since last Sunday. The PDs improve on their (dismal) showing of last week. The Greens' poor run of polls continues, while Sinn Féin received no bounce from the week's events in Belfast. The figures: FF 35% (-2), FG 29% (+3), Labour 12% (no change), PDs 3% (+1), SF 7% (-1), Greens 6% (-2), Independents/others 8% (+1). The number answering undecided is 18%.

I decided to see what the average of today's poll, plus four other polls to date (Irish Times May 11th, Sunday Business Post May 6th, Irish Examiner May 5th and Irish Times April 27th), would reveal. The average support for the parties, with the change from 2002 in brackets, is as follows: FF 35.8% (-5.7), FG 28% (+5.5), Labour 12% (+1.2), PDs 2.4% (-1.6), Green 6.2% (+2.4), SF 8.6% (+2.1), Independent/other 7.2% (-3.8).

A look back reminds us that, in 1997, Fine Gael won 27.9% and Labour 12.9%, which resulted 54 and 21* seats, respectively. That indicates that both parties will need to take at least the percentage of first preferences they did in 1997, if Fianna Fáil is to be ousted from government. (*Labour numbers include Democratic Left.)