fallibilist

"I may be wrong and you may be right, and by an effort, we may get nearer to the truth." (Karl Popper)

Sunday, May 06, 2007

Two polls show alternative edging ahead

The Irish Examiner says Saturday's opinion poll leaves the alternative alliances on "a knife-edge". The state of the parties is as follows: FF 37% (-2), FG 26% (+2), Lab. 13 (+3), PDs 2% (-4), Green 6% (unchanged), SF 8% (-1), Independent/other 9% (+3). The Examiner poll was conducted last Monday and Tuesday, before the Taoiseach's explanation on Thursday of his financial affairs in 1993/4. The affair took another turn this afternoon when the Tanaiste asked for a "a credible and comprehensive public statement." McDowell added that "no purpose would be served by them leaving Government and handing over the Justice and Health portfolios to people who are unfamiliar with the issues" and that he would go back into Government with Fianna Fáil if a credible account was given by the Taoiseach and accepted by the Irish people.

Today's
Sunday Business Post/Red C poll shows a similar picture, but in fact shows Fianna Fáil gaining over the two weeks since the last such poll, despite what the media has been describing as a disastrous opening week of campaigning for the party. The results: FF 37% (+2), FG 26% (-1), Lab. 12% (+1), PDs 2% (-1), Green 8% (-1), SF 8% (unchanged), Independents/others 7% (unchanged).

In other words the Examiner gives the FG/Labour/Green alternative a 45-39 lead over the FF/PD incumbents, while the Business Post scores it 46-39 to the alternative.
Last time, 45.5% gave FF and the PDs 89 seats.

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