Paddy Power poll

Over at Irish Election, Adam takes us through how the 30th Dáil will look, if Paddy Powers' odds are right in every constituency. Thus, in a five-seater the five candidates with the best odds are counted as elected. To be exact, Adam's exercise covers 39 out of the 43 constituencies; Paddy Powers seem not to offer odds on the other four. In this simulated poll, then, 78 seats would represent a Dáil majority. The results as calculated by Adam give: FF 64 seats (-11), FG 42 (+14), Lab. 19 (-1), SF 10 (+5), Green 8 (+3), PDs 3 (-5), Socialist 2 (+1), Independent 6 (-6).

By this reckoning FF/PDs would take 67 seats and FG/Lab./Green 69 seats. Other hypothetical combinations include FF/Green 72 seats and FF/Labour 83 seats. The latter is the only viable majority by this measure.