fallibilist

"I may be wrong and you may be right, and by an effort, we may get nearer to the truth." (Karl Popper)

Sunday, May 06, 2007

Paddy Power poll

Over at Irish Election, Adam takes us through how the 30th Dáil will look, if Paddy Powers' odds are right in every constituency. Thus, in a five-seater the five candidates with the best odds are counted as elected. To be exact, Adam's exercise covers 39 out of the 43 constituencies; Paddy Powers seem not to offer odds on the other four. In this simulated poll, then, 78 seats would represent a Dáil majority. The results as calculated by Adam give: FF 64 seats (-11), FG 42 (+14), Lab. 19 (-1), SF 10 (+5), Green 8 (+3), PDs 3 (-5), Socialist 2 (+1), Independent 6 (-6).

By this reckoning FF/PDs would take 67 seats and FG/Lab./Green 69 seats. Other hypothetical combinations include FF/Green 72 seats and FF/Labour 83 seats. The latter is the only viable majority by this measure.

1 Comments:

Anonymous Deirdre Lyons said...

Hi Karole, this is Dee, your old COLR buddy... have been checking your page every now and again, it's good to see you writing again.. hope all is well with you, I'm sure you're enjoying all the general election excitement.. keep up the good work!

Sun May 06, 04:01:00 PM GMT+1  

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