"I may be wrong and you may be right, and by an effort, we may get nearer to the truth." (Karl Popper)

Friday, May 18, 2007

Latest betting on Election 2007

At present, Paddy Power has Kenny at 4-5 to be the next Taoiseach, Ahern at 5-4 and Cowen 6-1. Pat Rabbitte is 8-15 to be Tanaiste, whereas Michael McDowell has no better odds than Brendan Howlin - both are at 7-1. As for number of seats in the 30th Dail, the shortest odds are on FF to return with 63-66 seats (6-4), FG 52+ seats (10-11), Labour 23+ seats (11-10), Green party 9-10 seats (7-4), PD's 1-3 seats (11-10) and Sinn Fein 9-10 seats (11-10). If the parties get (say) 63, 52, 23, 9, 3 and 9, that would only leave 7 seats for others. With Joe Higgins a near-certainty for the Socialist party and Clare Daly in with a shout, that would leave only 5 Independents. It would also put Fine Gael, Labour and the Greens in government, with 84 seats i.e. a one-seat majority.

For the changing betting picture, see Irish Election Betting.