fallibilist

"I may be wrong and you may be right, and by an effort, we may get nearer to the truth." (Karl Popper)

Tuesday, May 15, 2007

Irish Independent poll suggests Govt doing poorly, FG/Lab improving

Today's Irish Independent/Millward Brown IMS poll is bad for the Government. The poll, taken last Wednesday and Thursday, shows: Fianna Fail 35% (-3), Fine Gael 26% (+3), Labour 13% (+1), PDs 3% (-1), the Greens 5% (-1), Sinn Féin 10% (+2) and Independent/others 8% (no change).

The 44% achieved by the FG/Labour/Green Rainbow would likely be insufficient to form a majority. But, as RTE notes, surveys from this firm "have in the past been said to overestimate Fianna Fáil and underestimate Fine Gael support." For example, in 2002, Millward Brown IMS gave Fianna Fail 50% just before the election. In the event, the party took 41.5% of first preferences. On that basis, if Fine Gael were to outperform its 26% result in today's poll on election day, it would move close to entering government. Surely though today's poll couldn't overestimate Fianna Fail support, could it?

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